The Rise and Fall of Popularity
Seth referred everyone to a recent study on PhysOrg the other day which found that the fall of an item's popularity mirrors its rise to popularity. Intuitively, this seems true. Trends leave just as abruptly as they arrive. But to put quantitative research to the idea is very satisfying.
While it's important for marketers to be aware of this study, it's also important for another group to be aware of it: Wall Street.
Here's why...
Remember the meteoric rise of Boston Market and Krispy Kreme? Ideas like these take off like a rocket. At the early stages they're just ideas doing everything a desired brand is supposed to do: get word-of-mouth, encourage inquiry, perhaps even feel a bit elusive.
Then Wall Street notices and gets involved. They encourage investment in real estate, materials and staffing. They buy software and hardware and broker large distribution deals. They engage in massive structural investment--more stores, more cities, perhaps even more countries. And all of this is done on speedy quarterly deadlines. This makes sense, of course--for the long term health of the business.
But while all this is going on (pretty much behind the scenes) consumers start to wain on the idea. They're tired of the articles, blog posts and energy surrounding the brand. What got them really excited a short while ago has now, seemingly overnight, become common. And those fresh donuts one used to only find at the Krispy Kreme store 20 miles away are now available by the box at the local supermarket at 1am. The consumer energy starts to slow shortly after the long-term plan is physically built.
Moving forward be wary of the meteoric rise because now, research shows, it's followed by a meteoric slide.
