Welcome to '08, friends. Like many people, I spent the weirdly-long holiday contemplating the year that was and the year that's coming. It's fun to go through the process: What worked? What didn't? How can I be better? I'm not much for setting New Year's goals, but I am big on constantly refining things...
Anyone who's spent time reading The Black Swan knows that trying to predict the future, and then setting your sites toward it in grand fashion, is a fool's errand. But for collective debate, I have a few thoughts on the year ahead for our industry...
First, I think the industry will finally see lots of brilliant online executions. This past year we made significant in-roads understanding how to best harness the web for brands. And, while web aficionados will cry out that the ad industry was extremely late to the party, I say that we were only fashionably late and that the technology and delivery and consumer acceptance wasn't fully in place before '07 to put forth brilliance anyway. '08 will be a year to really place brands on the web in ways that move product and provide entertaining value. I also hope that most of us will pull back on the Flash in favor of more Search.
I think '08 will be the year direct marketing gets a little cooler. I recently read that when TiVo users stop fast forwarding through commercials to watch something, the highest percentage of those spots are direct spots. Interesting. In Boise DVR usage is higher than the national average (20% vs. 17%), so we pay strong attention to findings in this area. I look for ads to be more direct in nature, less high-concept. It's about unique, focused selling and product benefits.
Creativity will be king. Ad Age stated that in '08 finding new creative in new places will be embraced more than ever. Personally, I love this. I affectionately call it Original Simplicity. One day, I'll post it up for collective commentary and debate.
More projects from loyal brands. The wise agency would look at what happened with Nike and Amex last year: Keep the master agency but open things up for new creative thought on projects and product launches.
And finally: tailored ads and tailored delivery for tailored audiences.
In the uncool category for '08 goes consumer generated ads placed in general media (Cooper O. recently referred to this as the Acid Wash jeans of the early nineties--classic).
Agencies to watch: Saatchi is at a crossroads. So is one of my favs, GSD&M. In terms of new ideas: Droga5 will be fun to keep an eye on. So will Martin and Wieden. CP+B seemed to, rather quietly, open a UK office, so that will be interesting too. R/GA and Digitas should continue to get lots of ink. Next/Next shops: I like Sarkissian Mason , 72andSunny and Trumpet.
Onward to '08...
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