John Drake

Fuel and Country

Saw a BMW with three stripes on the grill the other day. Wondered what it was. Turns out the first red stripe on the right is for Texaco, the American oil brand, who, I guess, partnered with BMW during the early days of M racing. The light blue stripe on the left is for BMW and the Bavarian region. The purple in the middle represents the partnership of those two things and allows for a nice transition between the two colors. Always cool when nice looking design has meaning.

More Connected Builds Disconnected

3. As the world gets increasingly connected we are also sometimes getting more disconnected: Today over 3 billion people are connected with over 1.5 billion people on Facebook alone. But oddly a combination of people seeking out people like themselves, algorithms that maximize engagement by showing us things we agree with has actually left us disconnected from ideas, individuals and initiatives that do not “fit” our lives. Thus we float in our little bubbles, warm in our soapy self-loving embrace, while occasionally flaming and pricking other bubbles that float by which are not aligned with our way of thinking.

This lack of connection and trust was seen in Edelman’s Trust Barometer where trust levels for business, leaders and the media were at all-time lows. People now look to friends and family and people like themselves for news, opinion and expertise. We can make fun of some of our “post-truth” politicians but if we spend our time in our own self-reinforcing chambers are we not also “post-fact” or “post-truth”?

And it is here where I found the folks at Davos were behaving with trepidation and uncertainty. For instance, given the huge concentration of wealth or revenue in a sliver of companies and people (10 percent of the companies drive 80 percent of profits, 8 people have the same wealth as the bottom 3.5 billion, and technology is actually making more wealth go to fewer people with in many tech industries one company taking it all) there was very little real discussion on any painful steps that would be needed to be taken to ensure that those left behind and angry do not explode. No talk of new regulations or laws. No talk of taxes. No talk of re-distribution. Apparently providing training (with no details of even how this was to be done) and some light self-regulation will be enough.

The reason that at Davos there was uncertainty because the folks know that society is changing in ways where an unmitigated quest of globalization, improving the state of the world at the expense of the state of a country and pursuing stock holder return/wealth creation alone, no longer resonates or will be accepted.

It is the reason many companies are leading with the “Responsible and Responsive” focus ensuring that in addition to CSR activities they truly help people’s lives get better. The soft edges of a companies will become competitive edges.

#3 of the 7 takeaways from Davos.

2017 Advertising Spending Forecast

Reviewing some numbers today and global ad spending rose 5.2% in 2016. Looking ahead, spending is forecast to grow in 2017 but not at the same rate as last year. WARC anticipates a growth rate of 3.6%. (No Olympics or U.S. Presidential election.)

In the U.S., the ad spending growth rate was 5.8% which was the highest rate of growth since 2010. It's always amazing to be reminded that ad spending in the U.S. represents around one third of global ad spending--we spend around $180B advertising to ourselves.

There are no surprises in the breakdown of spending forecasts by medium this year...

On A Wondrous Mind

It's really hard to think of anyone today who is as creative, and as successful, and as iconic as Karl Lagerfeld.

He lives only in the present, never attends marketing meetings, and believes that if things are kept too peaceful with your competitors that it's dangerous because 'you fall asleep'. 

Whenever a piece on him serves up, I never miss the chance to read it. And this latest NY Times Style article is as entertaining as it is insightful.

On The Positive Vision of A.I.

Elon Musk and Y Combinator president, Sam Altman shared the stage for Vanity Fair. There's a great bit at 37:25 about A.I.

Sam talks about how humans and A.I. are already co-evolving but not many of us have really paid attention. And what it's doing is empowering individuals, not enabling one source or one person to power. 

Smartphones In Five Years

8 out of 10 people in the world. And there's more here.

Volatility

McKinsey's latest economic snapshot said this: Volatility has also climbed as a threat to global growth in the near term. Forty-eight percent of all respondents now cite economic volatility as a top risk for the next 12 months, up from 34 percent in June.

Meaning, things can change rapidly and unpredictably.

I never realized this could rank so high.

So, interestingly, despite our ever-rising ability to track and know things, our need to cite "volatility" also rises.

Real Time Outdoor

Here's an artificially intelligent billboard with an algorithm attached. The board evolves over time to show the most effective ads that it can based on people's reactions. Copy, layout, font and image can all be mixed and matched, automatically, in real time. The point is that it gets smarter, choosing less and less solutions until it finds the best mix...

"We are not suggesting a diminished role for creative but we know technology will be playing a greater part in what we do." 

 

There's an important nuance to monitor with this particular approach for creativity. It's one thing to have various executions and then optimize to the highest performing one; that's wonderful. And there's a beauty in taking design elements that prove to work in one area and trying to spread them across others.

 

But this AI creative design approach starts to get close to literal group design without guidance. Incorporating everyone together and then spitting out one idea is a risk. Like what GM did with their initiative to "give the people what they want" and use extensive focus groups to arrive at the design of the quickly-pulled Aztek.

 

Said one company exec back then: "By the time it was done, it came out as this horrible, least-common-denominator vehicle where everyone said, 'How could you put that on the road?'" 

The American Dream and Technology

The phrase "The American Dream" wasn't actually used until 1931when James Truslow Adams used the expression in his book, The Epic of America. It's the idea that tomorrow will be better than today. An idea that always pulls us in.

A full exploration of that idea today can be found in The History of the American Dream (Is It Still Real). The piece talks about how "some dreams come true; some don't. Equality of outcome is not the same thing as equality of opportunity, and equality of opportunity is at the heart of the American vision."

That phrase, equality of opportunity, brought up recollections of What Technology Wants where Kevin Kelly concluded that the key thing about technology is that it creates opportunities for people to maximize their talent and potential in ways that weren't previously possible.

Which then prompted a quick look at where America currently stands in some common web and technology metrics and how each metric ranks when compared to other countries across the world...

But a list of such metrics in one place was proving difficult to find.

So after cobbling some stuff together, here it is:

• Web Penetration: 78%  -->  ranks 27th in the world

• Web Users: 245 million  -->  2nd most in the world

• Facebook Penetration: 50%  -->  ranks 23rd in the world

• Facebook Users: 156 million  -->  most in the world

• Twitter Users: 110 million accounts  -->  most in the world

• Twitter Activity: 28% accounts are active  -->  ranks 4th in the world

• LinkedIn Users: 58 million  -->   most in the world

• Mobile 3G Subscribers: 208 million  -->  most in the world

• Mobile 3G Penetration: 64%  -->  ranks around 6th in the world

• Tablet Pentration: 28%  -->  near the top, behind Hong Kong, Singapore

The pure volume of Americans with technology access is what always makes headlines and creates a feeling that "everyone" in the US is participating. But when put into context with other countries it's interesting to learn that US penetration numbers are notably lower down the list.

Image: Rob Green/Bergman Group

Great Work

The Momentus Project is a collaborative effort of designers, illustrators and artists who create visual expressions of some of the most defining moments in US history.

Seeing this effort reminded me of an interview I heard the other weekend with David McCullough who said that "history is the most important topic that could be taught because it's about cause and effect; human action and consequence".

 

LivingSocial and Mind's Eye Media created the The LivingSocial Taxi which is terrific. A great reminder that LivingSocial isn't so much about discounts as it's about enabling new experiences.

 

 

Sometimes you don't really know how dated something has become until you place it side by side with the contemporary. Like the new 'bow tie' Budweiser can from JKR.

 

This piece of work for Nokia via W+K London is great and we'll probably be seeing it again at Cannes. It's all shot on the Nokia N8. And the making of video is just as entertaining while doing an excellent secondary job at selling the product.

 

Burberry created the Art of the Trench, a wonderful collage of trenches throughout the world. A great way to showcase the diversity one product can have. Have a trench look to share? Upload it.

 

It turns out you can have some fun with public service road safety messaging.

 

 

This GAP effort really works for me. LA is the denim capitol of the world and focusing on the 1969 Denim Studio gives a feeling to the GAP that's been absent for quite some time. (Unless I missed something.) Of course, the comments along with the video aren't kind. But I like it.

 

Here's a great extension of Mastercard's "Priceless" campaign by R/GA. The effort is called "Check In To the Ballgame" and all this month New Yorkers have a chance to find 20 decommissioned Yankee stadium seats placed across the city. Once found fans can then scan the embedded QR codes on the seats which will check them in via Facebook Places making them eligible to win VIP tix to a 2011 Yankee game.