Updated notes on real estate and new home construction trends & stats.
I. Overall In 2020
-Home sales to rise 2.9% to 5.5 million units.
-Home prices to rise 3.8%. Demand will continue to exceed supply.
-Ave. rate for 30-year conventional, fixed-rate mortgage will average under 4%.
-Share of first-time buyers to grow.
-Affordability issues to persist will continue to persist in some areas: Seattle, So. Cal., Bend, Or.
-Market will continue to favor sellers.
-Likelihood of 2020 recession: 26%
Source: Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, Windermere Real Estate
II. New Construction
-66% of new home buyers have previously owned a home (vs. 54% of existing home buyers).
-First-time buyers choosing new is growing: up to 35% in 2019 from 29% in 2018.
-Main obstacle driving existing homes over new is cost: new homes often exceed budgets. This is followed by timing and hassle.
-Primary competition for new homes is existing homes: latter is often easier.
-When asked to pick the top reasons for buying new, 41% said 'everything was new', 37% said 'location', 35% said 'appealing features', 27% said 'ability to customize', and 26% said 'ability to choose floor plan'.
-Two-thirds of new home buyers buy in the area they initially considered; 16% purchased close to that area, only 10% landed somewhat close.
-51% of new construction buyers work remotely at least part of the time.
-One-third of new construction buyers went over budget (same as existing) because they 'fell in love with a home, and wallets followed'.
*Source: Zillow New Construction: Consumer Housing Trends Report 2019